Western Himalayas Snow Conditions Report – 8th March 2025

  

Storm History & Snowfall Patterns

The past four to five weeks in the Western Himalayas have been marked by below-normal precipitation, although February was relatively wetter than January. Despite this, the overall snowpack remains shallow across most of the region, including Kashmir, Lahaul, and Himachal Pradesh, with only the high-altitude alpine zones maintaining good coverage.

• Early February (Feb 4-8 Storm):

• The first major February snowfall event brought approximately 30 cm of snow to much of Himachal Pradesh.
• Snow depths in Sethan and other mid-elevation areas (~3000-3500m) remained thin (~1m or slightly more in the alpine zone).
• Lahaul’s south-facing slopes remained mostly bare, with skiable conditions found only above 3500m in select alpine terrain like Yangla, Triloknath and Yotse.

Yotse, N, 3800m, 15th Feb

View of Yotse slopes from Darcha, 15th Feb 2025

Shinkula, View above the Z, 18th Feb 2025

Shinkula, Left Bank, 18th Feb 

Shinkula 18th Feb

 Alpine zones above Triloknath. (Sun facing aspects had seemingly a crust on it ) 

• Late February (Largest Storm of the Season, ~3rd Week - Early March:

• The most significant storm cycle of the winter delivered over 1 meter of precipitation to Kashmir, Lahaul, and higher Himachal slopes.

South Portal, Atal Tunnel, After the end Feb Storm

• This storm had stronger winds compared to earlier storms, which resulted in extensive snow redistribution in higher-elevation zones, particularly above 4500m.
• The storm initiated a major climatic avalanche cycle in Gulmarg, completely flushing the southern bowls.

Padum after the Feb End storm

Tangole, Kargil

• Late February – Early March Warm-Up & Post-Storm Effects:

• After the storm passed, snow conditions were initially good for skiing, but a gradual warming trend set in.

Barbog slopes, across keylong, early March

Drilbu-ri slopes as seen in early March 

Piaso and Puker zone 

• Treeline conditions (3000-3500m) in Gulmarg and Sethan began to degrade as temperatures rose.
• This warming increased the likelihood of wet snow instability and led to melt-freeze crust formations in areas where rain fell before transitioning to snow.

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Snowpack Evolution & Stability

1. Persistent Weak Layers & Mechanical Resets

   • In many areas, the early-season weak layers remain buried but have not been fully triggered.
   • Lahaul and high-elevation zones (4000m+) in Himachal still contain these buried weaknesses, particularly in zones that have not seen major avalanche activity yet.
   • The recent storms provided a “mechanical reset” in some regions, where heavy snowfall led to large natural avalanche cycles that cleared unstable snow.
   • However, in areas where the snowfall was not heavy enough, these weak layers continue to linger, making future snow loading a significant concern.

2. Melt-Freeze Cycles & Crust Formations

• Melt-freeze crusts have developed at mid-elevations, especially in regions like Sethan, where rain-on-snow events created potential weak layers for future avalanches.

• Some avalanches in Sethan released on these old melt-freeze crust layers, indicating that crusts are influencing avalanche activity in certain areas. These were the storm slabs. On other aspects they slid on old snow surface.

Obs of Avy Activity in Sethan Alpine Zone by Ankur Bodh

1. Deep vs. Surface Instabilities

• Deep instability is still a concern at higher elevations (~4000m+), especially in north-facing terrain that has remained in winter-like conditions.
• Wind slabs are forming along ridgelines, with significant cornice development, though cornices have not yet started breaking off.
• These cornices and wind-loaded slopes may become a major concern with future snowfall and warming trends.

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Avalanche Activity & Regional Breakdown

1. Gulmarg & Kashmir

• Snowpack Depth & Stability:
  • Snow depths remain reasonable for skiing at higher elevations, but recent warming has significantly degraded treeline conditions.
• Avalanche Cycle:
• The end-of-February storm triggered a major climatic avalanche cycle, where entire southern bowls flushed out simultaneously due to high snowfall accumulation.

• The Gulmarg avalanche advisory (Brian Newman) was recently downgraded to "Moderate" after weeks of fluctuating between High and Considerable.
• Skiing Conditions:
  • Good skiing above 3500m, but wet, deteriorating snow below treeline due to persistent warming trends.

2. Lahaul & Keylong Region

• Skiable Terrain:
• Most lower and mid-elevation terrain (below 3500m) remains unskiable due to thin snow coverage and warming temperatures.
• Yangla and Yotse continue to offer the best skiing options.

• Avalanche Activity:
  • The D4-sized avalanche at Tandi occurred on a previously bare south-facing slope, suggesting that terrain steepness and sheer snowfall accumulation were primary factors.
  • Another large avalanche occurred near Telling, close to the north portal of the Lahaul tunnels.
  • Lahaul’s high passes remain in a considerable avalanche risk state, as early-season weak layers are still untriggered.

3. Sethan & Kullu Valley

• Snowpack & Stability:
  • Snow remains shallow, with melt-freeze crusts forming on old snow surfaces.
• Avalanche Risk:
  • Some slides have released on old crust layers, reinforcing concerns about mid-elevation instability.
• Skiing Conditions:
• Snow quality was initially good post-storm, but recent warm temperatures have degraded conditions significantly at treeline.

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Future Outlook & Weather Forecast (March 9-16)

1. New Storm System Expected

   • A prolonged wet weather system is forecast from March 9-16.
   • This storm is expected to be ~50-60% the strength of the late February storm, meaning less total accumulation.
   • Rain will likely fall up to 3000m, with snowfall only occurring above 3000m.

1. How This Will Affect Avalanche Risk

   • Rain-on-snow events could lead to direct avalanche triggers, particularly in mid-elevation terrain (2500-3000m).
   • New melt-freeze crusts could form at higher elevations, making future snow bonding unpredictable.
   • High alpine zones (4000m+) remain at risk for deep slab avalanches, as untriggered weak layers could become overloaded by additional snowfall.
   • Slopes in Telang should be closely monitored, as they may be prone to delayed releases.

2. Advice for Skiers & Backcountry Travelers

• Unstable conditions are likely in mid-elevation terrain, where rain could lead to rapid snowpack destabilization.
• Higher elevations (above 4000m) should be treated with extreme caution, as deep instabilities remain present.
• Best skiing will be found above 3500m, but rising temperatures will degrade conditions quickly after storms pass.

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Final Thoughts

• Gulmarg & Upper Kullu: Avalanche risk is now Moderate, but continued warming is degrading conditions fast.
• Lahaul & High Passes: Avalanche risk remains Considerable, with untriggered weak layers still sitting in the snowpack.
• Upcoming Weather: A new storm is approaching, bringing rain below 3000m and new snow at higher elevations, which could exacerbate snowpack instability.
• Skiing Outlook: Best skiing will be found above 3500m, but watch for avalanche concerns in high-risk areas.